The value of the stock in the entire basin would remain the same while a strong financial deterrence would be in place where it matters most. Highly vulnerable areas would be populated by “guardian” trees commanding each up to thousands of dollars, in hectares worth millions, as long as they are on the ground. It is in the interest of the concessionaries that they remain so. A basin-wide approach would minimize distortions and enable deployment of financial resources toward hot spots of deforestation.

Second, shift to a mobility system based on electric fluvial transport for passengers and cargo. The region is crisscrossed by waterways that could be used to provide efficient and cost-effective connectivity.  The Amazon basin has over 50,000 kilometers of rivers navigable to boats weighing up to 1,000 tons8.  Historically, river navigation had been the key transportation system in the basin for movement of passengers and cargo.  However, the focus, since the 1960s, on road transport has led to irreversible damages9. 

 It has been estimated that by mid-decade, 10,000 km of roads will be built or improved in the Amazon basin10. The expanding network of surface roads will continue to permanently alter the structure and integrity of the Amazon.  While there is scant systemic analysis of the costs and benefits of road transport, there is sufficient evidence that in addition to the environmental damage, many roads are not even justified from a financial perspective.  A study11 concludes that, for example, rebuilding BR 319 in Brazil would result in costs that surpass by 15 times any anticipated benefits.   In Peru, the “Inter-oceanica” touted as an investment in economic integration at a $4.5 billion cost, has triggered permanent land use degradation, illegal mining, social conflict (prostitution, alcoholism), introduction of alien species, and further road construction leading to additional deforestation.  But reports indicate that the highway has failed to significantly increase the commerce between Brazil and Peru12.

What if an emphasis is placed on fluvial-based transportation, as the primary choice for mobility?  After all, most of the settlements in the region are in riparian areas and fluvial transport is as much as an order of magnitude cheaper than road alternatives under a variety of circumstances13.  A typical river-going ship can carry 1000 tons of cargo which would require at least 50 trucks to mobilize.  The switch brings significant energy savings.  

Further, advances in electric drives presage rapid improvements in autonomy and cost efficiency of electric barges and river cargo boats14.  Mobility reliant on river-based systems powered by electric drives has an enormous potential in the Amazon basin. No road infrastructure would be able to compete with the cost and energy efficiency advantages of fluvial transport in the basin.   

Third, develop and deploy a blueprint for sustainability of human settlements that favors fluvial connectivity, promotes electrification of economic activities and “island” power grids, independent of access to a national grid.  It has been argued that the coupling of power generation and electric transport offers cost competitiveness and gains in efficiency in Latin America15. The case is strengthened for those areas further from the grid, where energy security, energy efficiency, improved urban air quality and load balancing can be enhanced by linking renewable power supply with transport, fluvial and urban, while meeting all other energy demands.   

Think of electricity storage depots instead of fuel tanks, all-electric surface and fluvial transport fleets instead of diesel trucks and boats, vehicle to grid links instead of fuel stations and self-generation of power. The gradual transformation of towns to an electrified future powered by locally sited renewables makes economic and environmental sense15. The towns in the basin could become human activity islands of sustainability with low footprints on the surrounding ecosystem.

Fourth, engage in a rapid expansion of permanent conservation refuges, from the current estimates of 40%16 to 50% of the legal area of the Amazon basin, based on their unique contribution to global biodiversity and the urgency to safeguard the cultural heritage of the region17.  Even if deforestation is stabilized, degradation of forests could continue to affect its biological and cultural diversity. Today, about one third of the remaining forest shows signs of degradation, leading to a weakened ecosystem and loss of biodiversity.18 To prevent further deterioration, it is key to achieve complete exclusion from infrastructure development: no transmission or road infrastructure, and no non-indigenous use of natural resources, in conservation areas.  

Include also a restoration effort of degraded or abandoned pastures where agroforestry and sylvo-pastures offer alternatives to expansion of agriculture19. There is an estimated 140 Mha of degraded land just in Brazil. Of these, about 30 Mha are severely degraded pasture areas. Restoration of degraded land makes imminent sense and will reduce pressure on the ecosystem.  

These are not impossible things to do. The proposed actions fit with the character of the basin; collectively, these are economically rational actions. In the end, the planet and its occupants will pay hefty consequences if the current path to disaster is not averted.

References

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