Philippines Country Report
from Climate Alert Volume 7, No. 4 July-August 1994
An average of 19 typhoons now hit the Philippines each year, and three major droughts struck the country during the 1980s. Under climate change the country can expect even more typhoons, floods, storms and droughts. Sea level rise compounds the risks, leading Filipinos, already concerned about their vulnerability, to view climate change scenarios for 2010 and 2070 with alarm.
About 60 percent of the nation's growing population lives in rural areas. Frequent flooding from typhoons and intensified southwest monsoons will affect about one fourth of the people. Severe risk will be felt by about 5 million, around 7 percent of the inhabitants.
Reclaimed areas of Metro Manila and Metro Cebu may be submerged, along with the bay area outside Manila and the shore of Laguna de Bay, a large lake near Manila. A country of more than 7,000 islands (although only about 10 percent are inhabited), the Philippines will also see some small islands submerged. The study recommends action to protect human settlements and to strengthen disaster preparedness and response.
The impact of climate change on agriculture will be serious not only because of typhoons and flooding, but because coastal areas will be subject to storm surge and salt intrusion and wetland crops will be heavily damaged. Furthermore, the dry season is expected to become extremely dry, especially during episodes of ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation). Agricultural adaptation will require development of crop varieties that can endure stress. Farmers will need to protect their land from frequent flooding in the monsoon season and will need to practice intensive soil and water conservation in the dry season.
Flooding is likely to drop more sediment behind dams, increasing the cost of hydroelectric and irrigation dam management. There is still time before 2070 to allow mangrove forests to retreat from rising seas, according to the study. Adoption of a proposed Forestry Master Plan will help to increase the number of CO2 sinks.
The Philippine team proposes "retreat and accommodation" as an initial adaptation to sea level rise. Analysis of further protection options is still in progress. Greenhouse gas emissions in the Philippines result first from fossil fuel burning for energy, transportation and industry. Forest activity contributes another third of emissions and agriculture adds a substantial share. To mitigate these emissions, the study recommends efficient use of fuels and promotion of renewables and other non-fossil fuel energy.
Team Leader: Raul E. de Guzman
FAX: (632) 789 256
Study Conducted By: Philippines Consultant, Environmental Primemovers of Asia, Inc.
Implementing Agency: Department of Environment and Natural Resources, The Philippines
