Bangladesh Country Report
from Climate Alert Volume 7, No. 4 July-August 1994
A definite trend toward increasing rainfall is expected to accompany climate change in Bangladesh, an ominous development in a country with such large areas of low elevation. Considering the possibility of greater variability in precipitation, water management is a key adaptation issue, with improved irrigation facilities to stabilize food grain production. High priority is suggested for a national system of tradable water rights. Since many of Bangladesh's rivers arise in the Himalayas of Nepal and India, regional cooperation in water management and water sharing is accorded front rank.
The consequence of much more rain would be severe flooding; a 10 percent increase in rainfall would be followed by an increase in runoff depth of around 20 percent. With a one meter rise in sea level, one fifth of the nation's land and nearly 15 percent of the population would be threatened by inundation. The Sundarbans, one of the world's richest mangrove forests, would disappear, leading to a major loss in biodiversity, loss of a natural sink for greenhouse gases, and loss of biomass which is a major energy source in the country.
The impact on the Bangladesh economy of climate change would be extremely adverse: an annual loss of $1 billion of GDP by 2010, $5 billion by 2070.
Despite these implications, the Bangladesh country report stresses a consideration that is probably true in most developing countries: eradication of poverty is the nation's highest priority, with climate change issues occupying a distinctly lower level of importance.
At highest priority are "no regrets" measures such as distribution of improved cooking stoves, participation in forestry action programs, more efficient water management in the dry period, construction of coastal shelters from rising seas, and planting of more trees. Reforming of forestry and energy prices, also a "no regrets" strategy, takes second priority with a particular focus on energy efficiency in appliances, equipment and industrial processes. These recommendations have already been approved and are under active consideration.
In third place come water management during monsoons, strengthening coastal embankments, reducing methane emissions from rice fields and livestock, and more emphasis on future forestry development to replace the biomass that may be lost in the Sundarbans.
Development of high-yielding crop varieties resistant to salt, submergence and drought as well as close observation of the behavior of crops in a changing climate rank high on Bangladesh's research agenda.
Monitoring sea level rise is a crucial concern for a nation with vast, heavily populated river deltas, and Bangladesh plans to keep a close sea rise check on a national basis and join others for regionwide observations. A high priority is put on regional cooperation in water management and water -sharing, which the report states has a "lackluster record." The Government's flood control policy comes under severe criticism for lack of consideration of environmental impacts in planning, design and operation.
A newly developed storm alert system, plus the country's storm shelter program, are invaluable for this country with a long history of recurrent losses of hundreds of thousands of lives in cyclones and tidal waves. The new system is credited with probably keeping the death toll below 500 in a May 1994 storm in sharp contrast to the death of more than 130,000 in a major cyclone in 1991.
Because of its low energy use and predominantly agricultural sources of greenhouse gases, emissions are less important than in many of the other participating countries. But the Bangladesh report expresses an interest in developing tradable rights in greenhouse gas emissions.
Team Leader: Dr. M. Asaduzzaman
FAX: (880) 2 813 023
Study Conducted By: Bangladesh Consultant, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies
Implementing Agency: Ministry of Forests and Environment
