Likely Effects of Climate Change

Scientists' current best projections indicate the mean global temperature will rise about 3 degrees Celsius (or about 5 degrees Fahrenheit) if the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubles.  But the potential effects of climate change reach far beyond a mere warming of earth. 

In 1997 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN body charged with investigating the global warming threat, published a report on changes that might be expected from global warming.  While many potential effects of global warming are uncertain and more research is needed, the IPCC was able to reach some conclusions about the expected effects of global warming.  Below are some of their conclusions:

Scientists project that the mean sea level could rise about 50 cm (1. 6 feet) under the scenario of warming detailed above.  A significant sea level rise would cause worldwide problems from places as varied as Florida to Bangladesh to the islands of the South Pacific. 

Ecosystems would also change as the climate changes.  Generally, more tropical climates could be expected to migrate to the north.  Agricultural output would shift in many areas of the world - some areas might experience a positive change in output; others a negative change in output.  

Changing ecosystems would cause changing wildlife ranges and habitats.  Many health researchers fear global warming could increase the spread of disease as species of insects and other disease-carrying agents that are now confined to the tropics become able to migrate northward. 

Climate change has potential impacts for international security as well.  Refugee crises caused by environmental changes are a potentially destabilizing impact on international security.  Additionally, as fossil fuel supplies dwindle, nations with reserves will become increasingly powerful in the world political arena unless the world accelerates a switch to renewable forms of energy. 

Regional Effects of Climate Change